How much tax will I get back in 2025? How to estimate it

What determines your refund?

Whether you receive money back from the Belastingdienst depends on the difference between what has already been paid and what you actually owe. In practice, several factors play a role.

Provisional assessment versus actual outcome

A provisional assessment is based on an estimate. If your real income or deductible items differ, your final return may lead to a refund or an extra payment.

Payroll tax withheld

Your employer withholds payroll tax during the year. That withholding often does not take all deductions into account.

Tax credits

The general tax credit and employment tax credit are often processed through payroll, but not always in a way that perfectly matches your final annual position.

Common reasons for a refund

Mortgage interest deduction

For many homeowners this is one of the largest reasons for a refund. In 2025 the deduction is capped at 37.48%.

Healthcare costs above the threshold

Specific healthcare costs can be deductible above the applicable threshold.

Charitable donations

Donations to ANBI charities may be deductible depending on the type of gift.

Public transport travel deduction

If you travel to work by public transport and pay the costs yourself, you may qualify for a fixed travel deduction. There is no general study-cost deduction anymore.

Unused tax credits

If you only worked for part of the year or had a lower income, your final return may still unlock credits that were not fully reflected in payroll withholding.

How much do people get back?

That varies enormously. Mortgage interest, healthcare costs, gifts, payroll withholding, fiscal partnership, and entrepreneurship can all influence the final result.

• Homeowners often see bigger refunds because of mortgage interest deduction
• Renters without deductions may receive little or nothing
• Entrepreneurs may benefit from entrepreneur deductions and business costs
• Our clients receive an average refund of EUR 847 through Jan de Belastingman

The difference between filing yourself and using a specialist often comes down to deductions people overlook, such as specific healthcare costs, paid partner alimony, or public transport travel deduction.

Can you estimate it yourself?

Trial calculation in Mijn Belastingdienst

The easiest way is to start the return in Mijn Belastingdienst and complete the information. Before you submit, the system shows a trial calculation.

Quick rule of thumb

For a rough estimate, add the deductions and multiply them by the tax rate that roughly applies to your income:

• Income up to EUR 38,441: 35.82%
• Income from EUR 38,441 to EUR 76,817: 37.48%
• Income above EUR 76,817: 49.50%

Example: EUR 3,000 of deductible mortgage interest x 37.48% gives a tax effect of about EUR 1,124.

When it gets more complex

• Multiple income sources
• Changes in your home or relationship situation
• Box 3 assets such as savings, investments, or crypto above the tax-free threshold
• Entrepreneurship

In those cases, a specialist review often makes sense.